Hurricane Thread: 'Cause, you know, 'tis the season.

[Masamune]

Scroll down for updates.

"I can't see what's happening. Are we boned?"

"We're boned."

North Carolina is about to get smacked in the face. When he's done there, Earl will head up the Coast. Delaware, Maryland, parts of Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, MA, RI, etc. I know MD, DE, and VA have already declared States of Emergency. My area usually gets flooding (which is likely as Earl is the size of Georgia.) Stay safe BBRT-ers. You can have another cookout when Earl goes away.

If my bridge washes out again, I'm punching Earl in the face!



NOAA's Current Report:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 021456
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
MASSACHUSETTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 74.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS
FROM WESTPORT EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
TO WEST OF WESTPORT...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN BOTH HURRICANE WARNING
AREAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Frong]

How close are you to the coast, anyway? Maybe with any luck, this stupid storm will decide it doesn't feel like being abusive today and go back out to the Atlantic.

[Diabolique]

Stay safe, Masa and everyone else in Earl's path!

[Roemello]

Likely won't be much by the time it hits up here.... though I think the Cape is gonna get whacked hard.

[soloist]

I've just learned that the storm will
be passing us, but we are exp-
ecting rain tonight... just
not the storms that w-
ere reported earli-
er today. I ho-
pe everyon-
e here i-
s ok.

[Frong]

Luckily, it looks like Earl ended up not causing as much damage to the central US coast as it easily could have. It kinda stayed out off the Carolina border islands and weakened some before it made landfall, rather than making landfall right away and being a big fat problem. Guess everyone dodged a bullet this time. Here's hoping nature forgets to reload.

[Masamune]

I was hoping for something like this:




All I saw of Earl was the edge of the storm. No rain, tiny bit of a breeze, and just clouds. I do need rain. My grass is so brown.

[KenseidenXL]

I saw absolutely nothing.

[Frong]

We had two days of somewhat cooler weather here in central Ohio thanks to Earl, but that was it. No rain or anything. It was probably the first time I've ever seen when a hurricane actually made the weather nicer.

So anyway, you wanted to see Scrambles the Death Dealer? Better bring your anti-dismemberment suit.

[Masamune]

Choo-choo! All aboard the Hurri-train!



Hurricane Igor & Tropical Storm Julia are tear assing around the Atlantic. Igor is trying real hard to get to Cat 5 Status. He might just finish off the East Coast since Earl failed too.

Fun fact: Igor was the nickname my Dad gave my nephew because he always cried with one eye wide open. O_<

Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Sep. 13, 2010 4:53 am ET

HURRICANE IGOR

As of 5 AM EDT Monday Hurricane Igor was centered about 940 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with top winds of 150 mph. Large and powerful Igor is moving west at 13 mph.

Hurricane Igor rapidly intensified to a category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale Sunday. Even though the intensity leveled off overnight additional strengthening is still possible over the next few days. Igor could become the first category 5 hurricane since Hurricane Felix in the Caribbean Sea in September 2007.

Igor should continue to move west, gradually turning towards the west-northwest on Tuesday. Igor is not a threat to any land areas for the foreseeable future.

TROPICAL STORM JULIA

As of 5 AM EDT Tropical Storm Julia was located about 30 miles south-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

Julia is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. This motion should continue Monday with a turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Julia is making its closest pass to the southernmost Cape Verde Islands this morning and should move away from the islands later this afternoon and tonight. A tropical storm warning has been issued for the southern Cape Verde Islands including Maio, Sao Tiago, Fogo and Brava.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to last into the afternoon with gradually improving conditions this evening. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches and locally up to 8 inches are expected which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

After Julia moves west of the Cape Verde Islands Monday night it would not be a threat to any other land areas through at least late week.

Additional steady strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Julia could become a hurricane Tuesday.

ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN

A trough of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea produces numerous showers and thunderstorms over western Haiti, eastern Cuba and Jamaica today. This system currently lacks a well defined circulation.

Environmental conditions are conducive for slow development as the disturbance moves toward the western Caribbean Sea tonight and Tuesday.

Interests along the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America should monitor the progress of the system as it approaches Tuesday night and Wednesday.

PACIFIC OCEAN

The Pacific Ocean is void of any tropical cyclones.

[Diabolique]

Hope Igor moves away, Masa! You certainly don't need another storm heading your way.

[Frong]

Hmm... well, as of yesterday, the National Hurricane Center thinks that Igor will stay pretty far out to sea, even if it does hit Category 5 status. Granted, it'd still whack everything within 175 miles of the eye with tropical storm-force winds, but that's at least not anywhere near as bad as it could be. Guess we'll see soon enough.

[Masamune]

Bermuda is getting slapped in the mouth. At least he missed us. Still, the surf is going to be pretty bad.

Weather Underground's Igor page.

[Frong]

I gotta wonder why anybody even lives on Bermuda all year round. They're basically sitting ducks for the entirety of hurricane season every year. That's not really optimal for, you know, not dying.